The hottest environmental protection constraint im

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The improvement of environmental protection constraints and the contraction of chemical supply will continue to deduce

in many sub industries of the chemical industry, overcapacity exists in a large area. When encountering the slowdown of economic growth, product prices fall in some directions during the inspection and drag down performance. However, according to the interim report, the structural recovery has begun to appear, and the key reason is the supply contraction, which includes both the slowdown of new production capacity and the withdrawal of original production capacity caused by the market downturn, as well as the accelerated market clearing caused by the improvement of environmental protection constraints, and the latter is more typical

affected by the supply contraction, the performance of spandex, glyphosate and other industries has recovered, while titanium dioxide and other industries have also begun to show a performance recovery momentum. Analysts believe that the story of price rise and performance recovery caused by supply contraction is expected to continue in other chemical sub industries, and we should not be overly pessimistic about overcapacity in the chemical industry. On the contrary, with the introduction of policies to resolve overcapacity and environmental protection, the profit inflection point of some sub industries such as soda ash and chlor alkali is expected to arrive in advance

the performance of spandex improved significantly in the second quarter

the data shows that the price of 40d spandex was 46000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, while the latest price has risen to 53000 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the performance of relevant companies in the first half of the year collectively improved, and the performance in the third quarter is expected to continue to improve. It can be seen from the price trend that the price rise of spandex was mainly in the second quarter of this year, so the performance of relevant companies improved significantly in the second quarter, with a significant improvement on a month on month basis

the semi annual report of Huafeng spandex shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.138 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 48.97%; The net profit was 80.21 million yuan, turning losses into profits smoothly. The first quarter report showed that the net profit of the company was only 18.4 million yuan. The company said that in the first half of the year, the market demand increased more than expected, the company maintained full production, and the overall gross profit margin also increased

other ammonia can also improve the performance of nylon in the first half of the year within the range of maximum heating and cooling rate. In the first half of the year, Youli holdings achieved an operating income of 1756.3618 million yuan, an increase of 234.71% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 267.0416 million yuan, an increase of 897.67% over the same period last year. Taihe new material achieved an operating income of 858.34 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.97%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 38.1571 million yuan, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year

the improvement of spandex market, in addition to the support of supply side, there is also the recovery of downstream demand

data show that in the first seven months of 2013, driven by the U.S. economic recovery, China's textile exports were $60.73 billion, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, and clothing exports were $94.14 billion, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year. The rebound in exports led to a moderate recovery of the domestic textile industry. In the first seven months of 2013, the total profit of China's textile and clothing industry was 44.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, showing a bottom recovery trend

according to the statistics of China's chemical fiber economic information, although it is still in the off-season at present, the operating rates of spandex downstream warp knitting, lace and yarn wrapping are currently 80%, 70% and 63% respectively, significantly rising year-on-year. Inventory is only 15 days, at a historically low level. Keqiao Textile market boom index also shows that the boom of spandex fabric market has rebounded rapidly this year

in the medium and long term, the spandex industry will significantly benefit from the increased demand brought about by consumption upgrading. Analysts said that compared with polyester, cotton and other bulk textile raw materials, spandex is a small variety of additive products. With the improvement of residents' consumption level and the post-80s young people gradually become the main force of clothing consumption, leisure has become the development trend of clothing fabrics. With good elasticity, spandex is an elastic fiber necessary for high-performance fabrics in pursuit of sportiness and convenience, and its demand growth rate is expected to be higher than the industry average

titanium dioxide environmental protection efforts may exceed expectations

from the interim report, the performance of the titanium dioxide industry is still depressed, but the supply and demand pattern of the industry has been gradually changing since the third quarter. The exposure of pollution events has led to the shutdown of some production capacity, and the introduction of environmental protection policies in the future will further tighten supply. Analysts believe that the profits of the industry in the third quarter are expected to improve month on month. If the future environmental protection policies are relatively strict, titanium dioxide is expected to become the next glyphosate

according to the interim report, the current fundamentals of titanium dioxide industry are not good. Annada China Daily said that in the first half of this year, the titanium dioxide industry continued the downturn since the fourth quarter of last year, the market shrank, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, exports fell sharply, and product sales prices continued to fall. In the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 257179000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.15%; The net profit was -22.089 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 199.6%

Bailian China News said that due to the continuous downturn of the international economic situation and the slowdown of domestic economic development, the domestic titanium dioxide market is still in a weak situation, and the price continues to be depressed. In the first half of the year, the company produced 57800 tons of titanium dioxide, a decrease of 3.83% over the same period last year; The sales volume of titanium dioxide was 56000 tons, a decrease of 14.63% over the same period last year; The operating income was 79.0366 million yuan, a decrease of 30.29% over the same period last year; The net profit was 1.5757 million yuan, a decrease of 98.98% over the same period last year

from the price trend of titanium dioxide, the price of this year was 16836.67 yuan/ton, which fell to 14807.14 yuan/ton on June 30. After entering the third quarter, it continued to decline, but the decline began to slow down, and the price began to rebound since September. Some companies with better cost control in the industry will improve their performance in the third quarter. A relevant person of Bailian said that the company's operating condition has improved marginally since the third quarter, and has been confirmed in terms of orders, payment collection and profits

the rebound of titanium dioxide price is mainly affected by two factors: first, the excessive iron in sewage discharged by Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group Chongqing Titanium Industry Co., Ltd. through the Yangtze River outfall was exposed, and the intervention of environmental protection departments led to limited commencement; Second, the environmental protection policy is expected to lead to the gradual start of replenishment of inventory. The Ministry of environmental protection is formulating the titanium spring testing machine, which is the equipment for testing the quality of springs. In addition to the above relevant national policies to support the field pollution prevention and control policies, it is expected that the environmental protection costs of enterprises will be significantly increased, and enterprises that do not meet the policy requirements will be more constrained in terms of exports, credit and so on

the industry expects that the environmental protection policy for the titanium dioxide industry will be introduced as soon as this year. In view of the serious pollution in the industry, the strength of the policy may exceed expectations. The price of titanium dioxide will be strongly supported by both rising costs and shrinking supply, and the performance of relevant companies will significantly improve

according to the calculation of analysts, the cumulative environmental protection investment of Bailian's 120000 ton capacity is 300-400 million yuan (it is estimated that the depreciation of environmental protection equipment is yuan per ton), and the operating expenses account for 6%-8% of the production cost (equivalent to nearly 1000 yuan per ton). If marginal manufacturers want to reach the company's environmental protection level, the cost per ton will increase by more than 1200 yuan, and the unit cost of small devices less than 30000 tons will increase more. According to statistics, manufacturers with less than 30000 tons (including 30000 tons) account for about 20% of the industry's production capacity

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